Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wearing conventional mundu, held a roadshow, attended numerous programmes and launched infrastructure initiatives in Kerala in a bid to draw voters forward of Lok Sabha elections in 2024. That is a part of BJP’s outreach within the southern state the place it hopes to make inroads.
In a strategic shift from hardcore Hindutva, which hasn’t labored for the social gathering in Kerala, BJP’s three-fold technique is to woo the Christian group, faucet younger voters and hardsell Modi’s model of growth.
The social gathering hopes that the PM’s conferences with high bishops and the entry of younger leaders like Anil Antony (AK Antony’s son) and former Kerala Congress leaders like Victor T. Thomas may assist it ship a number of MPs to parliament in 2024.
It’s laying particular emphasis on the Christian group – which has been backing it in a number of north-eastern states and Goa – to develop its vote base within the state which has remained elusive regardless of boasting of the best variety of RSS shakhas within the state. To that finish, the Prime Minister met bishops of assorted church buildings who wield appreciable affect in the neighborhood.
The PM flagged off the state’s first Vande Bharat Categorical, inaugurated a Digital Park and the nation’s first water metro challenge throughout his go to. Infrastructure is seen growth, inauguration of initiatives is exhibits progress – killing two birds with one stone. It may puncture the ruling CPM’s cost of step-motherly therapy by the central authorities and appeal to those that vote on the problem of growth.
At a conclave, “Yuvam”, the Prime Minister mentioned that the BJP and the youth of the nation shared the identical imaginative and prescient and underlined how his authorities was creating alternatives for them by means of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and Startup India programmes.
The BJP received its first-ever seat in Kerala within the meeting election in 2016. It did not open its account within the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the 2021 state election, recording a vote share within the vary of 11%-13%. Regardless of a excessive minority inhabitants of 45% (27% Muslims and 18% Christians), the BJP has failed to attract Hindu voters within the state as polarisation has not borne fruit.
Earlier than the 2021 election, the CPM-led LDF (Left Democratic Entrance) alliance was the clear Hindu social gathering and the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Entrance) the minority social gathering in Kerala. A motive why the state has witnessed umpteen incidents of violence between CPM and BJP/RSS cadre. The CPM views the BJP as a long-term competitor. Faith/community-based events akin to IUML (Muslims) and Kerala Congress (Christian) additionally play an important function in state politics and are alliance companions of Congress.
The Congress has sometimes stitched an alliance of higher castes, Muslims, Christians and a few Dalits, whereas the Left has had a big proportion of its votes coming from the numerically massive Ezhavas (20%) together with small proportions of higher castes, Muslims and Christians.
Within the 2014, 2016 and 2019 elections, the BJP managed to make marginal inroads into the Nairs and Ezhavas (OBC) by means of an alliance with BDJS, barely consuming into the Congress’s Hindu assist base.
The charged elections of 2021 noticed the LDF main in opposition to the UDF even amongst minorities. The LDF acquired 50% of Muslim and 44% of Christian group assist in opposition to 45% and 43% assist respectively for the Congress, as a result of weakening of the latter nationally, recognition of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the nice work executed by his administration in the course of the peak of COVID-19. A piece of the minority group additionally switched sides, from UDF to LDF, apprehensive of the BJP’s rise within the state.
With a weakened Congress, the BJP hopes it is going to be in a position to break up the minority vote and appeal to Christians in direction of it. It might probably draw power from the truth that the group voted for the social gathering in Goa in 2022, the place it fielded 30% Christian candidates and received seats from Catholic Christian-dominated South Goa. The BJP, together with allies, shaped governments in Christian-dominated Nagaland and Meghalaya lately.
The Muslim group’s shift in direction of LDF in 2021, if everlasting, may change the political panorama within the state without end. There are sturdy rumours that the IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) could ditch Congress and be a part of the CPM-led entrance. That is the place the BJP sees a gap and alternative to attract the Hindu votes from CPM.
It has additionally alleged that the CPM and Congress are in cahoots to defeat the BJP, citing the bonhomie between the events in Tripura and West Bengal.
The BJP’s strategic shift in Kerala, although, is fraught with challenges in Left’s last-remaining bastion. Its vote share has stayed within the 12% vary for some time now. Excessive ranges of literacy have meant that polarisation within the state would not work in addition to within the Hindi heartland states. It additionally lacks the charisma of a Pinarayi Vijayan and Shashi Tharoor.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the creator.
